Villeneuve-sur-Lot, the left did not follow the anti-FN instructions

The Republican front has indeed broken the law of partial Villeneuve-sur-Lot . A study conducted by Le Monde and Ifop confirms the indifference of some voters left vis-à-vis the National Front . According to the statistical survey, conducted from the results collected in 149 of the 167 polling stations in the 3rd district of the Lot-et-Garonne, only 23% of voters Socialist Bernard Barral, eliminated in the first round, will be deferred the UMP candidate Jean-Louis Costes in the second round. About 15% of them would have voted for the FN candidate Etienne Bousquet-Cassagne. Finally, rather than choosing between UMP and FN, a majority of Socialist voters (62%) would have preferred to abstain or cast a blank vote.

It is here that estimates, trends, calculated by statistical model. But these results seem to reach those obtained by Joel Gombin , a doctoral student in political science who had become known by analyzing reports of votes between the PS and the FN in the legislative part in the 2nd district of Oise. Ifop and political scientist make a common observation: Villeneuve-sur-Lot, the left-wing voters were very sensitive to the call of the PS at the national level, which recommended them to vote in favor of the UMP Jean Louis Costes to block the FN.
Mobilizing voters of the 1st round

Both tests can mostly sit back and put certain political statements to the punch after the election. Those of a left unprepared, first, that, like the boss of PS members Bruno Le Roux, had held that "no voter left did not vote for the National Front in the second round." However, according to the estimate of the FIFG, 1560 voters Bernard Barral would carry over to the FN candidate. Contribution in voice however represent only 10% of the votes collected by the FN in the second round. What minimize this time the reactions of several leaders of the UMP, such as Jean-Pierre Raffarin , who explained the high level of NF with a "very substantial delay in the Socialist vote."

The strategy of the Republican front has obviously failed, but the report from the left to the FN seems he was not massive. In reality, the FN had mainly benefited the mobilization of voters in the first round. These "new voters" were many: according to the FIFG, a quarter of voters in the second round had not voted in the first. 9275 is voice, which would be distributed equitably among the UMP candidate and representative FN. Jean-Louis Costes , finally elected with 53.76% of the vote , would have made ​​the difference with his opponent with FN its local presence. In Fumel which he is mayor, and in the township where he is General Counsel, the UMP candidate "garnered 1,650 votes ahead of his rival," according to pollster Ifop Jérôme Fourquet, 65% the final difference between the two candidates.
More than the Republican front, whose effectiveness has waned over the years, the local implementation would be the key to win against FN. This confirms that the political scientist Joel Gombin on his blog: "By investing a candidate without fief, the PS was shot in the foot."